The spotlight will shine on Aidan O’Brien’s Illinois in Thursday’s highlight of the week, the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot, with the progressive four-year-old heading the market at short odds.
However, racing broadcaster and journalist Johnny Ward and expert Stephen Harris, who appeared on Irish Racing’s Royal Ascot preview show, have both warned against backing Illinois at such short odds.
“I cannot get my head around the price,” said Johnny Ward, referencing Illinois’s inexperience over the Gold Cup’s testing two-and-a-half-mile trip. “This is being priced as if he’s the new Kyprios, and I think it’s jumping to conclusions. You’re taking on battle-hardened horses here.”
Illinois, who won the Queen’s Vase at the royal meeting last year and recently impressed at Chester, is expected to be Ballydoyle’s sole representative following Jan Brueghel’s withdrawal.
Ward and Stephen Harris both see value in the familiar names of Sweet William and Trawlerman, two of last year’s Gold Cup protagonists.
“Trawlerman got a soft lead last year and ran a screamer from the front,” noted Harris. “Sweet William had a negative ride, was too far back and still ran very well. He should come on for his seasonal return at York.”
Harris added that each-way punters could find rich opportunity:
“This is quite an interesting race to bet in. With those absentees, you’re essentially getting great each-way terms on proven stayers.”
Harris tips both Trawlerman and Sweet William each-way, adding:
“You’ve got the bookmakers by the short and curlies. Illinois could win, but he’s unproven at the trip and too short in the market.”
Meanwhile, presenter Emma Nagle pointed to Candelari, the lightly-raced French Group 1 winner representing the late Aga Khan, as her each-way interest.
“He’s only had five starts, but what he did in France last time was impressive. A rival came to him in the final 500 yards, and he just pulled out more. He’s clearly improving and has loads of ability.”
Nagle added that although the up-and-coming types like Illinois and Candelari offer appeal, the “safe” bets may lie with the seasoned stayers.
The Experts’ Verdict on the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot:
- Johnny Ward – Sweet William (each-way)
- Stephen Harris – Trawlerman and Sweet William (each-way)
- Emma Nagle – Candelari (each-way), noting Illinois has potential but unproven stamina
This is a submitted article
