THE GRAND National is renowned as one of the least predictable sporting events on the planet. The gruelling marathon trip and Aintree’s unique, fiercely demanding fences require extraordinary ability just to finish the race, let alone win it. However, with a series of significant safety reforms introduced in recent years, is the race beginning to reward the market more consistently?
There is a compelling case that it is. With Grand National odds already attracting massive ante-post interest for the 2026 renewal, the statistics behind the last decade are worth examining closely.
Three favourites in six years
In the last six renewals of the Grand National, the favourite or joint-favourite has won three times. Tiger Roll on his title defence in 2019, Corach Rambler in 2023, and I Am Maximus in 2024. Compare that to the six-year period immediately before Tiger Roll’s second win, and not a single one of those winners was the market leader. In fact, prior to Tiger Roll’s 2019 triumph, only three winning favourites or joint-favourites had been returned since the turn of the millennium.
The numbers on winning prices are equally striking. The average starting price of the last six winners was 18/1. The six before that averaged 28/1. That is a shift of 10 points in the space of a single decade. And within those last six renewals, three winners have been returned in single figures: Tiger Roll at 4/1, Corach Rambler at 8/1, and I Am Maximus at 7/1.
To put that in context, between 2000 and 2018, only Comply Or Die and Hedgehunter, both 7/1 shots, won the race at single-figure odds. That is two in nearly two decades, compared to three in six years.
Why the race is changing
The structural changes to the Grand National go a long way towards explaining the shift. From 2013, the solid timber cores of the fences were replaced with flexible plastic birch, making the obstacles significantly more forgiving when horses make mistakes. The aim was to eliminate rotational falls, and the data supports the improvement: between 2003 and 2012, there were nine fatalities; between 2013 and 2023, that figure dropped to five. Still too many, but a measurable improvement.
Then in 2024, a further round of reforms came into force. The field was reduced from 40 runners to 34, creating more space around the fences and reducing the risk of early pile-ups. The first fence was moved 60 yards closer to the start to slow the approach speeds. Foam and rubber toe boards were added to every obstacle.
The minimum horse rating was raised from 125 to 130, filtering out the most outclassed entries. Taken together, these changes have not only made the race safer, they have made it more of a test of pure ability and less of a lottery.
Outsiders are not finished yet
That said, the data should not be read as proof that the days of shock results are behind us. Those same six renewals also produced Noble Yeats at 50/1 in 2022 and Nick Rockett at 33/1 last year. Outsiders can and will still happen.
What has changed is the frequency. A five-year period between 2012 and 2016 produced no winner at shorter than 25/1, with Neptune Collonges, Auroras Encore, Pineau De Re, Many Clouds, and Rule The World all coming home at big prices. That kind of sustained run of shocks looks less likely now.
Checking the Grand National predictions for 2026 reveals a market headed by a horse, Iroko, at around 7/1, with multiple leading contenders priced between 10/1 and 20/1. The market is tighter than it was a decade ago and for good reason. The Grand National remains uniquely unpredictable, but the evidence of recent years suggests that class is beginning to assert itself more reliably than at any point in the race’s modern history.
Article written by Natasha Williams
